The Drought Status Update is issued every two weeks on Drought.gov as part of the California-Nevada Drought Early Warning System and communicates the current state of drought conditions in California and Nevada using information from sources such as the U.S. Drought Monitor, NOAA, CNAP, the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS), the Center for Western Weather and Water Extremes (CW3E), and others.
According to today’s update, California and Nevada remain entrenched in moderate-to-exceptional levels of drought, with precipitation totals and snowpack falling below normal. Although recent spring storms have brought moisture to certain areas of the region, those and other potential spring storms are not expected to significantly improve the drought conditions.
“The chance of getting back to an average snowpack for this winter is looking less and less likely,” said Tamara Wall, Ph.D., Associate Research Professor at DRI and Co-Principal Investigator of the CNAP program. “It is time to really start thinking about the impact that this will have across California and Nevada as we move into the warmer months.”
In Nevada, conditions are especially dire, with 40 percent of the state now classified by the U.S. Drought Monitor as “exceptional drought,” or D4 – more area than at any point during the previous drought of 2012-2016. In the Carson, Truckee, and Walker Basins, reservoir storage is also lower than it was this time last year, all currently at less than 40 percent of capacity.
During the last two weeks, the authors have noted a significant increase in drought impact reports from water utilities to agriculture as it has become clearer that drought is here to stay in California and Nevada and the region’s odds of reaching normal are low.
“Recently, we’ve seen confirmation that any remaining storms won’t bring much drought relief and drought impacts are intensifying and expanding,” said Amanda Sheffield, Ph.D., NOAA NIDIS Regional Drought Information Coordinator for California-Nevada.
Seasonal forecasts predict a continuation of warm, dry conditions over the Great Basin and Southwestern U.S. as we head into spring and early summer. As drought conditions intensify, impacts to agriculture, water supplies, and forests are expected, as well as increased wildfire potential.
“The abnormally dry conditions that we’ve had this winter mean a second dry year for much of California and Nevada, which means that working on our drought preparedness right now is essential,” said Julie Kalansky, CNAP Program Manager, Scripps Institution of Oceanography. “These conditions have potential implications for agriculture, ecosystem health, water supply, and fire potential.”
The Desert Research Institute (DRI) is a recognized world leader in basic and applied interdisciplinary research. Committed to scientific excellence and integrity, DRI faculty, students, and staff have developed scientific knowledge and innovative technologies in research projects around the globe. Since 1959, DRI’s research has advanced scientific knowledge, supported Nevada’s diversifying economy, provided science-based educational opportunities, and informed policy makers, business leaders, and community members. With campuses in Reno and Las Vegas, DRI serves as the non-profit research arm of the Nevada System of Higher Education. For more information, please visit www.dri.edu.
DRI scientists investigate effectiveness of heat warnings along US-Mexico border
RENO, NEV. AUG 25, 2020
Anthropology Meteorology Climatology Population Heath
Above: Aerial view of California’s Imperial Valley, where daytime temperatures during summer months can reach as high as 120 degrees. Credit: Thomas Barrat/Shutterstock.com
Featured research by DRI’s Kristin VanderMolen, Ben Hatchett, Erick Bandala, and Tamara Wall
In July and August, daytime temperatures along parts of the US-Mexico border can reach as high as 120 degrees – more than 20 degrees above normal human body temperature. For agricultural workers and others who live and work in the region, exposure to these extreme high temperatures can result in serious health impacts including heat cramps, heat exhaustion, heat stroke, and heat-related death.
Although the National Weather Service and public health organizations issue heat warnings to communicate risk during extreme heat events, heat-related illness and death are still common among vulnerable populations. Now, a group of DRI scientists led by Kristin VanderMolen, Ph.D., Assistant Research Professor with DRI’s Division of Atmospheric Sciences, is trying to figure out why.
“With the continued increase in episodes of extreme heat and heat waves, there has been an increase in warning messaging programs, yet there continue to be high numbers of heat-related illness and death in communities along the US-Mexico border,” VanderMolen said. “So, there’s this question – if agencies are doing all of this messaging, and people are still getting sick and even dying, then what’s going on?”
An agricultural field in California’s Imperial Valley, where DRI researchers are exploring questions about heat messaging and vulnerability in populations of agricultural workers and others who are vulnerable to heat-related illness and death.
Credit: Winthrop Brookhouse/Shutterstock.com
Assessing heat messaging: An interdisciplinary approach
In 2018, VanderMolen and colleagues Ben Hatchett, Ph.D., Erick Bandala, Ph.D., and Tamara Wall, Ph.D. received funding from NOAA’s International Research and Applications Project (IRAP) to explore questions about heat messaging and vulnerability in two pairs of US-Mexico border cities, San Diego-Tijuana and Calexico-Mexicali. Collectively these areas form the boundaries of the Cali-Baja Bi-national Megaregion. This unique transboundary location integrates the economies of the United States and Mexico, exporting approximately $24.3 billion worth of goods and services each year.
With expertise in the areas of anthropology, meteorology, climatology, and population health, this interdisciplinary team of researchers is now working on this problem from several angles. They are using climate data to characterize and assess past heat extremes as well as using long-range weather forecasts and climate projections to help improve the ability to put out advance messaging about future heat waves. They are working to identify and map populations that are particularly vulnerable to extreme heat and are collaborating with local agencies to understand why people may or may not take protective action during heat waves.
From initial conversations with local civic organizations and public health agencies, the team has learned that the reasons people may not be following heat warnings are complex. Recommended actions such as “stay indoors and seek air-conditioned buildings,” or “take longer and more frequent breaks,” may not be realistic for agricultural workers or others who don’t have access to air-conditioned spaces. There can even be negative consequences for those who choose to seek medical help.
“A big piece of the story that we’ve heard from some of the independent groups that work with agricultural workers in the region is that if someone gets sick and doesn’t show up for work, they can lose their job,” Hatchett explained. “If they go to the hospital and somebody sees them or hears about it, they can lose their job. There are some really big issues related to people not feeling okay with trying to get the help they need.”
“There is evidence to suggest that cases of heat-related illness and death are underreported, probably severely underreported,” VanderMolen added. “The demographics of the individuals for documented cases don’t reflect the population demographics overall. We know that there are a lot of inequalities in that area that may get in the way of people reporting illness.”
A map of summer maximum near-surface temperatures over the 30-year period from 1981–2010 shows that Imperial Valley (at the border between Mexico and the southeastern corner of California) is the hottest place in in North America, with an average maximum temperature from June to August of 40° Celsius (104° Fahrenheit). Data is from the North American Regional Reanalysis.
Credit: Ben Hatchett/DRI
COVID-19 complications and next steps
Originally, VanderMolen was planning to travel to the US-Mexico border this summer to do one-on-one interviews with members of vulnerable populations, but the COVID-19 pandemic has resulted in unforeseen complications.
Imperial County has been hit very hard by COVID-19, compounding the effects of extreme heat for the vulnerable populations that VanderMolen and her team hope to work with. The pandemic has also made it unfeasible to travel to the region to do face-to-face interviews, and has created challenges in coordinating with local agencies that are now overwhelmed in their efforts to address COVID-19.
“It’s a really interesting place and time to do this work because there are questions about what it means to be on stay-at-home orders and limited travel orders when it’s 114 degrees outside and you don’t have reliable air conditioning or its cost is prohibitive,” VanderMolen said. “At the same time, because they’re so overwhelmed right now with caseload, most folks in the area can’t really afford to address issues beyond COVID-19.”
As the research team works to navigate a path forward that is safe for both the interviewers and interviewees, they remain committed to developing information that will help vulnerable populations along the border.
“I hope that the information we provide is something decision-makers can use to make the right decision or create legislation that can help protect workers in the field, or at least call attention to the kind of inequalities and risk that the people there are being exposed to,” Bandala said. “Or, if we can produce information to change the mindset of the people to start thinking of themselves as a population at risk, and put more attention on the heat warnings, that will suffice for me to feel satisfied with the results of our research.”
The US-Mexico border is just one of many places around the globe where heat-related illness is a problem, added Hatchett – and many of those places happen to be where a lot of our food is grown or where important industries are located.
“I think this is a somewhat ubiquitous problem around the planet. We have these really important places that are susceptible to environmental extremes and these people that we rely on to have these regions be productive in terms of agriculture or industry. Unfortunately, those people are often the most susceptible and underserved populations to these compound environmental hazards,” Hatchett said. “It’s so easy to forget them, but one of the goals of this project is really to bring to light the importance of aiming much-needed resources at trying to help those populations and those places.”
For more information on the members of this DRI research team, please visit:
The family dinner table. The water cooler with coworkers. Your social media feed. Bedtime with your toddler.
What do all these places have in common? They’re full of stories.
Look closely atyour day and, chances are, you’ll notice that stories permeate just about every nook and cranny of your life, from the podcast you listen to as you’re getting ready for work to the Netflix show you binge in the evening to wind down.
It’s not just because stories entertain us. Science has shown that storytelling has an even more powerful function—stories help coordinate behavior in communities, teachshared values and norms, and even synchronize our brainwaves. They’re so important to successful group interactions, according to one study on hunter-gatherer societies, that the best storytellers turn out to be preferred social partners and have greater reproductive success, suggesting that storytelling has evolved through individual-level selection.
The research makes it clear that stories ground us and guide us. That’s why social scientists have started listening for them as the world grapples with the devastating impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.
My COVID-19 Journey
Researchers at the Desert Research Institute, Spryng.io, and the Human Systems Dynamics Institute have launched a project called My COVID-19 Journey that aims to collect stories from people throughout the world over the comingyear. The team hopes that they’ll gather tens of thousands of unique entries to the project, enough to begin identifying patterns of behavior and decision-making in the face of uncertainty and chaos caused by the pandemic.
Map of My Covid-19 Stories: Blue dots represent locations where stories have been submitted from so far.
The goal isn’t to collect a library of individual stories—instead, it’s about finding patterns among them.
“While individual stories are important, the collective experience and the patterns that can be found in it are what we’re really looking for,” explained Tamara Wall, PhD, associate research professor at DRI and project lead. “This is a pattern seeking process.”
Historically, this kind of inquiry—one that invites stories and asks questions to facilitate pattern spotting—has only been possible at a very small scale over long periods of time, practiced by ethnographers and anthropologists whoexamine communities and groups to learn about their customs, relationships, and systems of power.
Now, with an easy-to-use online tool developed by Spryng.io, researchers can collect this kind of information rapidly and in real-time. More than just a survey, the tool is rooted in sense-making methodology, which aims to learn the participants’ opinions and the context that informs and shapes those opinions.
An example question that respondents answer after writing and titling their submission. These kinds of questions help provide the context that shapes the experiences participants share.
This datahelps researchers discern patterns that emerge out of what may feel like chaos—sparse grocery store shelves, overburdened hospitals, canceled plans—and get a better sense of what influences and shapes those patterns.
“To understand why some folks went for toilet paper while others began making protective masks,” explained Ajay Reddy, founder of Spryng.io.
Putting the data to work
With a deeper understanding of how we are collectively experiencing the COVID-19 pandemic, and why we’re making the choices we are during the crisis, researchers are optimistic about what they can do to improve our collective response to this crisis.
In past research projects, for example, this methodology has helped fire captains adapt the training for wildland firefighters to account for rapidly shifting fire behavior and the changing risks on the front lines of wildfire.
For the COVID-19 project, the team plans to share data and findings with several levels of decision-makers, including the US Department of Health and Human Services, state and local governments, and non-profit organizations.
“We expect that county and state-level elected officials and decision–makers will probably find this work most useful,” said Wall. “For example, it could be really interesting to examine how people in different areas respond to public health messages, or to see the different concerns that motivate behavior change, whether that’s the health of the economy or their own personal health.”
Data collection began this month, and participants from around the world have submitted more than 200 stories. The research team’s goal is to have at least 5,000 before they can begin analysis.
“While each of us may be alone in our day-to-day experience, we are participating in an emerging global crisis,” reflected Glenda H. Eoyang, Ph.D., founding executive director of the Human Systems Dynamics Institute. “Statistics about our behaviors and health status fill the public press and social media, but the patterns of our individual experiences are hidden from view. When we share our stories and make sense of them for ourselves and with others, we will begin to see how the future is unfolding around the world.”
In just 5-10 minutes, you can contribute to this project and help researchers understand how communities across the globe are being impacted by COVID-19—because your story is more important now than ever.https://crm.spryng.io/r/DRI
Portions of this blog are adapted with permission from Decision-making and COVID-19, published by Spryng.io’s CEO and Chief Product Officer Ajay Reddy.
New study collecting human experiences emerging from the global pandemic
Reno, Nev: (Tuesday, March 31, 2020) – As the number of people and communities impacted by the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) continues to grow by the hour, a group of social scientists has turned their attention to collecting the stories emerging out of this pandemic.
Using an approach that combines short narratives and responses to questions about people’s experiences with COVID-19, Spryng.io, the Human Systems Dynamics Institute, and the Desert Research Institute (DRI) have launched an online tool for people to share their COVID-19 stories.
“In our connected society, it’s easy to post pictures and tweets about what you’re experiencing at the moment,” says Tamara Wall, Ph.D., an associate research professor at DRI, “but those social media posts are often lost in the noise and the detailed stories behind those moments are never collectively interpreted. Most importantly, the patterns that could have led to our decisions in those moments are never defined.”
With the ability to quickly collect the narratives and stories of the things people are experiencing in real-time researchers hope to make sense of, and learn from, the decisions being made during the COVID-19 pandemic.
“While each of us may be alone in our day-to-day experience, we are participating in an emerging global crisis,” says Glenda H. Eoyang, Ph.D., founding executive director of the Human Systems Dynamics Institute. “Statistics about our behaviors and health status fill the public press and social media, but the patterns of our individual experiences are hidden from view. When we share our stories and make sense of them for ourselves and with others, we will begin to see how the future is unfolding around the world. That is the innovative contribution of this instrument at this time.”
Commonly referred to as “sense-making,” this type of social science research allows the people who share their experiences to also interpret what they’ve shared. They do this by answering a short set of questions through which they convey the meaning behind their experience. This can then illuminate new wisdom and insight, both individually and collectively (as communities and society) and provide lessons to go forward with new resilience and wisdom.
“Only a month or two ago we all had plans — things we were going to do, places we were going to go, people we were going to see, or projects that felt critically important. And now? Now we are faced with re-thinking and re-imagining what our lives are actually about,” explains Ajay Reddy, founder of Spryng.io. “Our challenge in this profound moment of renewed awareness is to discern patterns that emerge out of what looks like chaos. To understand what was influencing and shaping those patterns. To understand why some folks went for toilet paper, while others began making protective masks.”
The research team’s previous work in the area of sense-making has successfully illustrated how understanding patterns in wildland firefighter’s perceptions of extreme fire behavior can help communities better respond to changing climate conditions and large wildfires.
To share your story and help researchers understand how people and communities across the globe are being impacted by and experiencing COVID-19 please go to https://crm.spryng.io/r/DRI.
Justin Broglio, Communications Manager
Desert Research Institute
Jack Speranza, Chief Operating Officer
The Desert Research Institute (DRI) is a recognized world leader in basic and applied interdisciplinary research. Committed to scientific excellence and integrity, DRI faculty, students, and staff have developed scientific knowledge and innovative technologies in research projects around the globe. Since 1959, DRI’s research has advanced scientific knowledge, supported Nevada’s diversifying economy, provided science-based educational opportunities, and informed policy-makers, business leaders, and community members. With campuses in Reno and Las Vegas, DRI is one of eight institutions in the Nevada System of Higher Education. Learn more at http://www.dri.edu/
Spryng.io combines software and professional services that enable organizations to develop better understandings of the complex environments within which they operate. Just as a telescope or microscope amplifies the natural human ability to see, Spryng delivers a variety of ways to amplify the natural human ability to notice and respond to patterns in complex human systems. By making it possible to discern patterns within human systems at scale (including the ability to monitor how patterns shift and respond to adaptive actions over time), organizations can make more informed decisions that shape change toward desirable outcomes. Learn more at https://spryng.io/
The Human Systems Dynamics Institute builds capacity among individuals, teams, communities to deal with the complexity of day-to-day existence. In public and private Adaptive Action Labs, we guide clients through innovative design, implementation, and assessment cycles to find breakthrough responses to intractable issues. In research and writing, we create and disseminate perspectives, models, and methods for thriving in the 21st century. Learn more at https://www.hsdinstitute.org/
Reno, Nev. (Nov. 15, 2018) – The Southwest Climate Adaptation Science Center (SW CASC), a collaborative partnership between regional research institutions and the United States Geological Survey (USGS), recently received a five-year, $4.5 million grant from the USGS to renew support for the center’s research on climate science and adaption throughout the region.
The SW CASC was established in 2011 to provide objective scientific information and tools that land, water, wildlife, and cultural resource managers and other interested parties could apply to anticipate, monitor, and adapt to climate change impacts in the southwestern United States. Based at the University of Arizona, the SW CASC is a consortium that also includes the Desert Research Institute; University of California, Davis; University of California, Los Angeles; Scripps Institution of Oceanography at UC San Diego; Colorado State University; and Utah State University.
With its renewed funding, the SW CASC will build on its almost seven years of collaborative research and outreach. Over the next five years, SW CASC researchers are aiming to produce new scientific information alongside decision makers and managers to help make more informed planning decisions about the region’s highest priority issues, including the allocation of resources.
“We go beyond the routine of academic research, where the goal is to advance knowledge by publishing peer-reviewed papers,” said Stephen Jackson, USGS director of the SW CASC and adjunct professor of geosciences and natural resources and environment. “I like to call what we do ‘research plus,’ because we do that, plus create various products that are directly useful to managers.”
The Southwest is an ecologically varied region, with ecosystems including deserts, mountains, forests, and coasts, hosting some of the most iconic vegetation and wildlife in the U.S. Since it encompasses the hottest and driest region of the U.S., the Southwest faces a number of challenges associated with rising temperatures, including record low snowpack, increased flooding, and extreme wildfires. Land and resource managers at every level of government need up-to-date, accessible research on these topics to be prepared for changes and to anticipate future challenges.
“Through the SW CASC, we’re actively broadening the pool of scientists engaged in research related to climate adaptation in the Southwest in order to provide more information and resources to drive the decision-making process” said Tamara Wall, Ph.D., deputy director of the Western Regional Climate Center (WRCC) at DRI and a Principal Investigator for SW CASC.
SW CASC’s portfolio of scientific resources directly available to managers includes the SCENIC web application, developed by WRCC scientists. A searchable database of climate information about the Southwest dating back to 1980, the SCENIC app allows users to visualize and analyze historic data such as precipitation and temperature as well as climate projections.
According to Wall, DRI researchers will soon be launching a new and improved SCENIC 2.0 application that will feature an improved user interface, graphic outputs, and quicker information processing.
Emily Litvack of the University of Arizona Research, Discovery, & Innovation Office contributed to this release.
The Desert Research Institute (DRI) is a recognized world leader in basic and applied interdisciplinary research. Committed to scientific excellence and integrity, DRI faculty, students, and staff have developed scientific knowledge and innovative technologies in research projects around the globe. Since 1959, DRI’s research has advanced scientific knowledge, supported Nevada’s diversifying economy, provided science-based educational opportunities, and informed policy makers, business leaders, and community members. With campuses in Reno and Las Vegas, DRI serves as the non-profit research arm of the Nevada System of Higher Education.
Reno, NV (Friday, November 17, 2017): A climate research program led by scientists at the Desert Research Institute (DRI) and the Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California, San Diego has received funding from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to improve the ability of decision makers in California and Nevada to prepare and plan for extreme weather and climate events such as drought, wildfire, heatwaves, and sea level rise.
The California-Nevada Applications Program (CNAP), a DRI and Scripps collaboration that has spent more than 15 years understanding climate risks and providing cutting-edge climate science to stakeholders in the region, will receive $3 million over the next five years. CNAP has been part of the RISA program since 1999.
“We (CNAP) do both research and work as a boundary organization,” explains Tamara Wall, Ph.D., co-director of CNAP and deputy director of the Western Regional Climate Center at DRI. “We work with the people who produce climate information and the people who use it on a daily basis. Our online data tools, observational data, and publications make the climate information pipeline both wider and shorter, thereby making the climate data critical to on-the-ground decisions more accessible and easier to understand.”
With the new grant, the CNAP program will focus on climate-driven impacts related to water resources, natural resources, and coastal resources. This includes wildfire warnings and health impacts, sea-level rise and flooding, precipitation events in the Great Basin, climate information for underserved farmers, communication and coordination of the California/Nevada Drought Early Warning System, and research projects related to extreme precipitation, seasonal to sub-seasonal forecasting, and incorporation of new evaporative demand data into water management in Southern Nevada.
“The RISA program helps bridge the gap by partnering scientists and key decision makers,” said Dan Cayan, research meteorologist at Scripps and co-director of CNAP. “The goal is to have informed stakeholders who can use the latest research to anticipate, prepare for, and respond to climate impacts, and for our researchers to be able to directly support on-the-ground decisions to improve climate resiliency and inform policy.”
The new RISA funding will allow CNAP staff to work closely with communities, resource managers, land planners, public agencies, nongovernmental organizations, and the private sector to advance new research on how weather and climate will impact the environment, economy, and society. These teams will also develop innovative ways to integrate climate information into decision-making.
For more than 20 years, the RISA Program has produced actionable weather and climate research, helping to reduce economic damages that Americans face due to droughts, floods, forest fires, vector-borne diseases, and a host of other extreme weather impacts. A network of 11 RISA teams across the country works hand-in-hand with stakeholders and decision makers across the United States to ensure that research and information is responsive and able to effectively support responses to extreme events. The interagency National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) co-funds drought components of these awards.
CNAP draws together climate and hydrologic expertise at Scripps with physical and social scientists from DRI, as well as other research institutions in California and Nevada. CNAP research teams have developed collaborations with key decision makers across both states. CNAP has worked closely with Washoe County Emergency Management office, California Energy Commission and has taken a leading role in the three completed and now fourth ongoing, California Climate Assessments. In addition, the team has collaborated with California Department of Water Resources on several of their climate focused efforts and plays a key role in supporting the California Nevada Drought Early Warning System (CA/NV DEWS).
CNAP teams also work closely with fire agencies throughout the West to help officials better understand relationships between climate and fire, build institutional knowledge of fire fighters, and provide tools and information to help inform fire agency decisions.
In Nevada, CNAP teams work with Great Basin tribes to understand barriers to climate data and has helped develop a resilience plan with Washoe County. Most recently CNAP is working with Southern Nevada Water Authority, Science Climate Alliance – South Coast, and the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) on climate related projects. RISA is a program in the Climate Program Office, within NOAA’s Office of Oceanic and Atmospheric Research.
The Desert Research Institute (DRI) is a recognized world leader in investigating the effects of natural and human-induced environmental change and advancing technologies aimed at assessing a changing planet. For more than 50 years DRI research faculty, students, and staff have applied scientific understanding to support the effective management of natural resources while meeting Nevada’s needs for economic diversification and science-based educational opportunities. With campuses in Reno and Las Vegas, DRI serves as the non-profit environmental research arm of the Nevada System of Higher Education. For more information, please visit www.dri.edu.
Scripps Institution of Oceanography at the University of California San Diego, is one of the oldest, largest, and most important centers for global science research and education in the world. Now in its second century of discovery, the scientific scope of the institution has grown to include biological, physical, chemical, geological, geophysical, and atmospheric studies of the earth as a system. Hundreds of research programs covering a wide range of scientific areas are under way today on every continent and in every ocean. The institution has a staff of more than 1,400 and annual expenditures of approximately $195 million from federal, state, and private sources. Scripps operates oceanographic research vessels recognized worldwide for their outstanding capabilities. Equipped with innovative instruments for ocean exploration, these ships constitute mobile laboratories and observatories that serve students and researchers from institutions throughout the world. Birch Aquarium at Scripps serves as the interpretive center of the institution and showcases Scripps research and a diverse array of marine life through exhibits and programming for more than 430,000 visitors each year. Learn more at www.scripps.ucsd.eduand follow us at Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.
At the University of California San Diego, we constantly push boundaries and challenge expectations. Established in 1960, UC San Diego has been shaped by exceptional scholars who aren’t afraid to take risks and redefine conventional wisdom. Today, as one of the top 15 research universities in the world, we are driving innovation and change to advance society, propel economic growth, and make our world a better place. Learn more at www.ucsd.edu.
NOAA’s Climate Program Office helps improve understanding of climate variability and change in order to enhance society’s ability to plan and respond. NOAA provides science, data, and information that Americans want and need to understand how climate conditions are changing. Without NOAA’s long-term climate observing, monitoring, research, and modeling capabilities we couldn’t quantify where and how climate conditions have changed, nor could we predict where and how they’re likely to change.
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