Project Description

We propose to examine the obstacles to and opportunities for the use of climate forecasts in flood planning and management in U.S. rural areas. In addition to potential benefits for flood management, our study of the use of climate information provides empirical ground for testing ideas about a class of decision problems that relate to the individual, environmental, and group characteristics that shape whether and how decision-makers use scientific information about low probability high consequence events (i) when under time pressure; (ii) when constrained by incomplete or ambiguous scientific or technical information; and (iii) with limited institutional capacity to incorporate the information. Our work will contribute to the understanding of low probability risk perception, spatially-diffuse policy networks, and group decision making.