Verification of Spot Fire Weather Forecasts

Affiliation(s) PI Project period Funded by
DAS Brown, Timothy J 07/01/2012 - 06/30/2014 University of Utah

Project Description

The proposed work will assess the degree of improvement provided by spot and incident fire weather forecasts as compared to National Digital Forecast Database (NDFD) forecasts and provide a methodology to verify fire weather forecasts nationally. The expected benefits from this project include: 1) improved forecast accuracy of spot forecasts for both prescribed fire and wildfire events nationally resulting from the feedback obtained by objective metrics as well as user comments; 2) recommended path for implementation of verification tools within the NWS Performance Branch; 3) increased numbers of potential burn days, due to dependable verification statistics, to better enable the fire managers to meet their target goals and objectives.